RIGGED and the sunk cost fallacy

Had an interesting exchange in a battle chat this weekend I wanted to talk about. It illustrates both a not-uncommon belief about the game, and a too common misunderstanding of economics. It started at the beginning of the countdown. Here's essentially how it went:

Me: "GLHF"
Them: "There's no luck or fun in this rigged game."
Me: "It's not rigged."
Them: "Yes it is, I have the math to prove it."
Me: "Why do you play then?"
Them: "Too much time and money invested."

Let's take that a point at a time....

RIGGED! IT'S ALL RIGGED!

Which begs the question...

Why would it be rigged? And for whom?

The only group that can persistently rig the game at scale would be Wargaming. Why would they want to do that? How would they benefit from rigging the outcome of individual battles?

I never get a good answer to this. "To favor players who pay more!" is sometimes suggested. Mmmkay, but both teams can have players who pay more. I've spent a fair amount on the game over the years - I own a lot of premium tanks and buy a fair few loot boxes at Christmas. And yet my win rate over the last 1000 battles or so is only about 54%. If it were rigged, shouldn't I be winning a lot more?

If it were rigged in favor of people who pay then how come I sometimes have those 2-10 sessions like everybody else? How come I sometimes miss fully-aimed shots or low roll on people who should be 1-shot kills?

Sometimes I hear "To favor new players!" Same problem - there can be new players on both teams. And most new players are at low tiers where they're getting seal clubbed anyhow. If WG were really concerned with new players wouldn't they find a way to ban seal clubbing? 

There's an infamous Twitch troll who comes into various streams and spends his time complaining about inexperienced players always killing him because the game is rigged for them. Conveniently neglecting all the new players he easily dispatched himself. At least he did if he's a halfway decent player.

So far nobody can give me a plausible answer to those two very simple questions: "If it's rigged, who is it rigged for and why?"

In my opinion most of the people who howl about the game being rigged, are just angry because they're not as good as they think they are. Or because they had some bad luck. Watch the best players in the world play...most of them lose at least 35% of the time. Few of them survive more than 40% of their battles, overall. It's not rigged - it's a massive multiplayer game, with an RNG factor. Nobody wins, or loses, every game. Even the bots manage to win at least 30% of the time.

It's not rigged. Accept that not every shot pens. Not every pen kills. Not every game is a win. Just do your best and have fun. If you can't have fun...well, maybe this next section is for you.

"I've invested so much!" AKA "The sunk cost fallacy"

When I ask why they keep playing, if the game is so rigged and not fun, the answer is almost always "I've spent too much money on the game." 

Here's the thing though: playing isn't going to get their money back. Wargaming doesn't send refunds if you play a certain number of battles. Doubly-so with time. Time spent is time gone.

Continuing to spend even more time (and maybe money) on a game that they claim isn't at all fun is just throwing good time after bad. The sunk cost fallacy says that considering time or money that is already gone in the current decision to play is a fallacy. They can't get that time or money back. But they can decide to do something else that they'd enjoy more.

Or maybe they enjoy complaining about the game, and the attention it gets them, more than the actual game itself. The fact that they claim to have done "the math to prove it" suggests that maybe they enjoy ranting about the perceived conspiracy as much as anything.

It's a game. It should be fun. When it stops being fun, exit the game and do something else.

GLHF!